These past several years have felt like the diminishment of a once-great franchise. The disappointing seasons were marked by a sense of loss - loss of a star quarterback, loss of a legendary head coach - not to mention losing seasons. So after Belichick's disastrous debut last night at North Carolina - the Tarheels were blown out, 48-14 - and before the start of the 2025 NFL season this Sunday, I went and threw the I Ching to see what we could expect this year from the New England Patriots.
Tom Brady's last game as a Patriot was over five years ago - the AFC Wild Card game against the Tennessee Titans on January 4, 2020. We've been through at least four starting QBs since then, but the Pats still feel like "Brady's team." The Patriots lost that Wild Card game, 13-20, and Brady's final pass as a Patriot was intercepted and returned for a touchdown, but we tend not to remember that part of his legacy.
Bill Belichick's last game as the Patriots' head coach was on Sunday, January 7, 2024. He had been unable to achieve any real success in New England with star QB Cam Newton or with rookie QB Mac Jones, and then snapped a 15-game winning streak against the Jets when New England lost that last game, 17-3, to end the season. But we tend not to remember that part of his legacy.
I don't bring this up to shit all over the Patriots' many achievements. Far from it, I bring it up to remind myself the decline had begun before Tom or Bill's exit. We've been diminished for a while, even as the fans' self-image has remained a championship caliber franchise.
Today, the hexagram I threw was Sun, the 41st hexagram. The lake above, the mountains below. Curiously, no moving lines. The hexagram is titled "Decrease." The stoic mountain drains its excess waters to the lake below, just as the wise person curbs his anger and sheds his desires. To be frugal and content is to possess immeasurable wealth.
The Pats start this season with new head coach Mike Vrabel, a former New England linebacker from the glory years of 2001-2008. The starting QB is second-year player Drake Maye. Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson has the speed to potentially be the team's most potent offensive weapon. Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson are also solid running backs, so this should be a good rushing team.
Like the Georgia Bulldogs, one of the Pats' biggest problems last year was the o-line. First-round tackle Will Campbell may improve things but there's a lot of room for improvement. The Patriots’ top two receivers are Stefon Diggs and DeMario Douglas, although the depth chart beyond those two is pretty thin.
The Sun hexagram reminds us that we do not experience loss and diminishment without having first experienced gain and plentitude. The decrease is simply the other end of the curve of gain and loss. While for many other teams a fresh new season with a new head coach and a promising young QB might be a time of excitement, to some Patriot fans nothing but another NFL championship would suffice. The hexagram reminds us to not let the glory of the past detract from those successes we achieve in the present, or the promise of the future.
The Pats will start the season against the Raiders, a team in almost the exact same situation as New England. Both teams finished 4-13 last season. Both teams have veteran coaches making their debuts with new teams (Pete Carroll will be coaching his first game for the Raiders). Both have relatively new QBs. Former New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is returning to the team as OC after a couple seasons as head coach for the Raiders. The Patriots are favored to win by 2½ points.
To be frugal and content is to possess an immeasurable wealth, the I Ching advises. It is an auspicious time to shed dependency.