Yeva, in Peril

It's getting blustery up in the Arctic as gale force winds of 34 to 47 knots are blowing from the northwest across the Amundsen Gulf. The wind is expected to diminish to 15 knots near midnight tonight and lighter winds are forecast by early Monday morning. The current open-water waves of 3 to 6 feet are expected to subside to three feet or less by tomorrow morning. 

The winds will shift to the south by Monday evening and increase to 30 knots Tuesday afternoon. Late in the day, the winds will shift again and westerly winds of 20 knots are forecast.  

On top of all that, a special ice warning is in effect for the area due to the unusual presence of old, year-round sea ice continuing through at least Monday. It's a problem. 

Currently, both Ella Hibbert and Tamara Klink are safely anchored in protective bays along the Gulf's south shore to ride out the storm. The Teva is in Pierce Bay on the Canadian mainland while the Sardinha 2 is sixty miles to the west-northwest on Booth Island near Cape Parry.

Unfortunately, Pierce Bay is open to the north, and the northwesterly winds of the current gale could blow the sea ice into the Bay or block the Yeva's exit after the storm passes. If so, Monday night's southerly winds may open the Bay back up. On the other hand, the harbor on Booth Island is open to the southeast and is less likely to get blocked today, although Monday night's winds, the Yeva's potential salvation, could be the Sardinha's undoing.  

In any event, there's no telling whether the route out of the Gulf around Cape Bathurst to the west will be clear of ice after the storms, even if the boats can escape their harbors. In a worst-case scenario, both sailors may have to wait until Wednesday or later for the winds to finally subside and see where the ice lies before they can head west toward Alaska.